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Denote the values of no drop by $n$, the sum of item frequencies apart from Charge Essence of Hatred (CEH) by $p$ and the value of CEH by $c = 1$. The total drop chance (per Mephisto kill) of at least one CEH is calculated as $1 \,-$ the probability of getting 0 CEH The probability of getting 0 CEH is calculated as the probability of getting exactly 6 items other than CEH in the first 6 picks, plus the probability of getting at least one no drop and no CEH in the first 6 picks and no CEH in the 7th pick. $ \displaystyle \left( \dfrac{p}{n+p+c} \right)^6 + \left( \sum_{i=1}^6 \binom{6}{i} \times \left(\dfrac{n}{n+p+c}\right)^i \times \left( \dfrac{p}{n+p+c} \right)^{6-i} \right) \times \left( \dfrac{n+p}{n+p+c} \right) $
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Tue, 09 Oct 2018 12:26 GMT