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Let's first have a look what a loss costs you. You can get a decent porpoise fit for boosting already for around 70-80m ( https://zkillboard.com/kill/69097099/ https://evepraisal.com/a/idf1a ). Your insurance costs 16m and your payout is 54m.
Your risk after insurance thus is (approximate in millions):
\[ 75+16-54 = 37\]

Fitted Orcas seem to range from 800m to 1b. Your insurance costs 187m and your payout is 625m.
Your risk after insurance thus is (approximate in millions):
\[ 800+187-625 = 362\]

So how much more can you mine because of the Orca on the field? The Orca has a 3% bonus to bursts per hull level which means a maximum factor of 1.15. The Porpoise has a 2% bonus which means a maximum factor of 1.1.

Let's now say you mine the amount $X$ in isk in a fleet boosted by the Orca. The same Porpoise boosted fleet would mine in the same time $\frac{1.1}{1.15}X=0.9565 X$. Now, which amount $X$ do we have to mine that a possible Orca loss is better than a Porpoise loss? If following inequality is true the Orca would be prefered over the Porpoise:

\begin{align}
 X - 362 &> \frac{1.1}{1.15}X - 37\\
\left(1-\frac{1.1}{1.15}\right) X &> 362-37\\
\frac{1.15-1.1}{1.15} X = \frac{0.05}{1.15} X = \frac{1}{23} X &> 325\\
X &> 23 \cdot 325 = 7475
\end{align}
This means you have to mine 7.5b in ore/ice in an Orca boosted fleet. That was with the favourable assumptions for the Orca btw. If you assume Industrial Command Ships only trained to five and a fitted Orca for 1b your factor in the final calculation becomes $\frac{1.12-1.08}{1.12} = \frac{0.04}{1.12}=\frac{1}{28}$. And the increased loss of an Orca over a Porpoise climbs to $525$ This means you need to mine $28 \cdot 525 = 14700$ that means 14.7b.

Other soft factors are too be considered too. If you mine with more expensive ships you have to take bigger savety measures. Scan the pocket for WHs, roll them, the importance of pickets increases. Further possible losses have a bigger impact on the community. People try to gank you for an Orca. It is much less likely that they try that for a porpoise.

Mon, 02 Jul 2018 08:14 GMT